Michael Clover, Ti’s Head of Commercial Development, says:
“The sharp uptick in contract rates at the end of 2025 has been driven by an expectation that demand will recover in 2026, causing many shippers to seek to lock in cheaper freight rates now. We’ve seen contract rates pick up while spot rates remained stable, even during peak season, another sign that Q4 demand was quite soft despite better expectations for 2026. Given the geopolitical turbulence 2026 has started with, it will be interesting to see if the 2026 growth expectations from Q4 can be sustained”.
Operating costs also added slight upward pressure to contract rates. CNR data shows the cost of running a 40-tonne long-haul truck rose in Q4 2025. Diesel rose 0.66% QoQ. Driver costs increased 1.28%, up from 1.22% the previous quarter, though they're still below 2024 levels. Finance and insurance costs rose the most, by 4.23%. Meanwhile, new truck registrations across the EU27 grew 6% in Q3 2025, per ACEA, a sign that capacity is slowly increasing.
IRU Senior Director for Strategy and Development Vincent Erard adds:
"Last year was full of uncertainty for transport operators, as the global economy and international
trade experienced significant turmoil. Despite steady road freight volumes in the EU and relatively
positive industry output, operators must navigate unfamiliar market conditions while adapting to
disruptive regulations, including new tolling schemes and potential fossil fuel tax increases. These uncertainties have long-term implications, such as delayed investments in new equipment, which could jeopardise future capacity. We must change how we see transport. It’s not a commodity; it’s a resource to nurture for a more sustainable future. To achieve this, we need to support operators with the right enabling conditions.”
Looking ahead, inflation should ease to just under 2% in 2026, which is good news for purchasing power. A stronger euro, and cheaper energy will all help stimulate consumption, therefore putting upward pressure on rates, though real wage growth will decelerate compared to 2025. Competitive pressure from Chinese imports might put more upwards pressure on port routes, inching rates upwards.
Southern EU countries should continue outperforming in 2026, though not as dramatically as in 2025. We're already seeing some slowdown in Spain and Italy, which could translate to softer spot rate increases in those markets. Germany’s economic growth is set for a considerable rebound, while Frances's economy is set to grow 0.9% in 2026, according to Eurostat. According to the European Commission’s autumn forecasts, growth in the EU27 is expected to reach 1.4% increase in the upcoming year, thus we expect to see moderate rate growth as demand recovers.
The Ti x Upply x IRU European Road Freight Sentiment Index declined by 2.0 index points to 10.7 in Q4-25, indicating that bullish expectations for European road freight rates moderated slightly towards the end of the year, though the overall sentiment is still leaning towards an increase in rates.
Despite the QoQ decline in the sentiment index, the majority of respondents continued to expect higher rates: “slight increase” remained the most common response, accounting for 38.2% of all answers, while expectations of a “substantial increase” rose to 11.2%. Flat rate expectations increased to 36.0%, suggesting limited growth in the first quarter of 2026.
Thomas Larrieu, Chief Executive Officer at Upply, comments:
"Our data highlights a clear disconnect between contract and spot markets at the end of 2025. Contract rates continue to move higher, supported by forward-looking purchasing and tightening on specific key corridors, while spot pricing remains constrained as short-term demand remains limited and household caution persists. Volumes are rebounding on several major lanes, but not consistently enough to lift the spot market more broadly. Overall, the recovery remains uneven across Europe, with momentum likely to emerge first on selected corridors."
